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Showing posts with label Statistics 預測統計. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Statistics 預測統計. Show all posts

BitCast - The Daily Bitcoin Forecast Challenge

Ok just put it simply, you post your forecast on the maximum and minimum value of USD/bitcoin for tomorrow or any date in future, I'll compile a list of everyone's forecast according to how close they are to the observed values of that day and provide some statistical analysis.



To kick start, I will make my forecast for 23-March-2018:

Max = USD/btc
Min = USD/btc

Fun01 收益統計

日期 文章點閱 文章收益 被推點閱 被推收益 幫推點閱 幫推收益 獎金 補款 扣款 總計
11/14/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.0007
11/15/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.13552
11/16/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.0514
11/17/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.0084
11/18/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.01716
11/19/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.01624
11/20/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.00834
11/21/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.0028
11/22/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0
11/23/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.00084
11/24/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0
11/25/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0
11/26/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.0911
11/27/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.0232
11/28/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.0103
11/29/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.1282
11/30/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.198
12/1/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.42046
12/2/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.279
12/3/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.15656
12/4/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.24774
12/5/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.0433
12/6/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.0148
12/7/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.01994
12/8/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.0677
12/9/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.01916
12/10/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.3316
12/11/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.12286
12/12/2017 0 0 0 0 - 0.044
12/12/2017 0 0 0 0 22 0.044 0 0 0 0.044
12/13/2017 0 0 0 0 15 0.0266 0 0 0 0.0266
12/14/2017 0 0 0 0 19 0.02784 0 0 0 0.02784
12/15/2017 0 0 0 0 5 0.00944 0 0 0 0.00944
12/16/2017 0 0 0 0 3 0.00526 0 0 0 0.00526
12/17/2017 1 0.0012 0 0 1 0.001 0 0 0 0.0022
12/18/2017 12 0.01536 0 0 8 0.0085 0 0 0 0.02386
12/19/2017 3 0.00504 3 0.00062 8 0.00878 0 0 0 0.01444
12/20/2017 9 0.01224 3 0.00066 1 0.00126 0 0 0 0.01416
12/21/2017 20 0.03312 2 0.00036 4 0.0081 0.00208 0 0 0.04366
12/22/2017 7 0.01024 3 0.00048 1 0.00084 0.00058 0 0.03024 -0.0181
12/23/2017 1 0.0012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0012
12/24/2017 2 0.0025 0 0 3 0.006 0 0 0 0.0085
12/25/2017 0 0 0 0 3 0.0052 0 0 0 0.0052
12/26/2017 0 0 0 0 1 0.0015 0 0 0 0.0015
12/27/2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12/28/2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12/29/2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12/30/2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12/31/2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1/1/2018 1 0.0015 0 0 7 0.0132 0 0 0 0.0147
1/2/2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1/3/2018 2 0.0027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0027
1/4/2018 0 0 0 0 1 0.0012 0 0 0 0.0012
1/5/2018 2 0.0024 0 0 1 0.002 0 0 0 0.0044
1/6/2018 16 0.01872 0 0 5 0.00454 0 0 0 0.02326
1/7/2018 18 0.02382 0 0 8 0.0073 0 0 0 0.03112
1/8/2018 4 0.00508 0 0 4 0.0042 0 0 0 0.00928
1/9/2018 26 0.03056 2 0.00024 6 0.007 0 0 0 0.0378
1/10/2018 19 0.02268 4 0.00057 2 0.002 0 0 0 0.02525
1/11/2018 3 0.0044 120 0.02899 1 0.0012 0 0 0 0.03459
1/12/2018 3 0.00364 24 0.006 1 0.00126 0 0 0 0.0109
1/13/2018 0 0 4 0.00114 1 0.002 0 0 0 0.00314
1/14/2018 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1/15/2018 0 0 0 0 2 0.00204 0 0 0 0.00204
1/16/2018 3 0.0025 0 0 1 0.0018 0 0 0 0.0043
1/17/2018 2 0.0025 0 0 1 0.001 0 0 0 0.0035






預測準確率統計分析 Prediction Accuracy Analysis




Summary 總覽
-----------------------

No. of Verified Predictions 已核實預測總數 = 3
Prediction Accuracy 預測準確率 = 66%


No. of Verified US Politics Predictions 已核實美國政治預測總數 = 1
Prediction Accuracy for US Politics 美國政治預測準確率 = 100%


No. of Verified Australian Politics Predictions 已核實澳洲政治預測總數 = 0
Prediction Accuracy for Australian Politics 澳洲政治預測準確率 = 0%


No. of Verified UK Politics Predictions 已核實英國政治預測總數 = 1
Prediction Accuracy for UK Politics 英國政治預測準確率 =  100%


No. of Verified European Politics Predictions 已核實歐洲政治預測總數 = 1
Prediction Accuracy for European Politics 歐洲政治預測準確率 = 0%


No. of Verified Malaysian Politics Predictions 已核實大馬政治預測總數 = 0
Prediction Accuracy for Malaysian Politics 大馬政治預測準確率 =



-----------------------

US Politics 美國政治

1.  2016美國總統大選 Donald Trump 勝出

預測日期:2016-11-4
揭盅日期:2016-11-6
結果: 正確


2. Trump will NOT be Imprached in his First Term.

預測日期:2018-02-18
揭盅日期:2020-?-?
結果:

Markets

 Markets (1)
|Will Trump be Impeached in his First Te 
Singles Only. Paddy Power decision is final. He will be deemed to be impeached when the House of Representatives pass a vote for impeachment




3. Trump WILL visit the UK in 2018.

預測日期:2018-02-18
揭盅日期:2018-12-31 or earlier
結果:

Markets

 Markets (1)
Will Trump visit the UK in 2018? 








-----------------------


Australian Politics 澳洲政治



1. Malcolm Turnbull's Term as Prime Minister will end in 2019

預測日期:2018-02-17
揭盅日期:2019-?-?
結果:

.

When Will Malcolm's Term End Friday 01/06/2018




2. Malcolm Turnbull will NOT face a Leadership Ballot.

預測日期:2018-02-17
揭盅日期:2019-?-?
結果:

Turnbull to Face a Leadership Ballot

  • Wednesday 01/08/2018





3. Next Australian Federal Election will be held in 2019 or later.

預測日期:2018-02-17
揭盅日期:2018-12-31
結果:

Year of next Federal Election




4. Next Australian Federal Election Winner will be Labor.

預測日期:2018-02-17
揭盅日期:2019-?-?
結果:

Next Federal Election Winner





5. Liberal Leader at Federal Election will be Malcolm Turnbull.

預測日期:2018-02-18
揭盅日期:2019-?-?
結果:


Liberal Leader at Federal Election



6. Batman By-Election

By-Election




7. Division of Swan


Markets
Division of Swan 
Result at the next Federal Election, others on Request.



8. Next Labor Leader will be .


Next Labor Leader




9. House of Representatives Seats will be


House of Representatives Seats







-----------------------



European Politics 歐洲政治


1. 2017法國總統選舉 Marine Le Pen 勝出

預測日期:2017-02-22
揭盅日期:2017-05-07
結果: 錯誤



-----------------------


Malaysian Politics 大馬政治


1. 2018年 大馬大選 行動黨 國會議席數必定少過 35席


預測日期:2017-12-29
揭盅日期:2018-?-?
結果: 


2. 2018年 大馬大選 囯陣(Barisan Nasional)將無法得到 2/3 的 國會議席 (148席)

預測日期:2018-02-10
揭盅日期:2018-?-?
結果: 


3. 
2018年 大馬大選 囯陣 將繼續奪得 柔佛州議會 多數議席,繼續掌控 柔佛州政權


預測日期:2018-02-13
揭盅日期:2018-?-?
結果:



4. 2018年大選 彭亨 Paya Besar 區將會繼續由 囯陣(BN)拿下

預測日期:2018-02-13
揭盅日期:2018-?-?
結果:





N. 囯陣 (Barisan Nasional)必在 2049年之前失去 聯邦(中央)政權

預測日期:2018-02-09
揭盅日期:2049-01-01
結果: